Thursday 19 July 2018

FX moves: USD, EUR, JPY, CNY


The Yen and the CNY. One of the cheapest majors and one of the most expensive. On say a 2 year time horizon it might be time for the Yen to rally and CNY to devalue... with a target of >7.5c/ Yen



 USD also on the cusp of a breakout


So USD up this year on a rate hike funding short squeeze, potentially a violent top. Then at some point in 2019 as the US transitions into an inflation cycle, a long term (burn off the debt) bear market starts to emerge. 

For the Euro to be genuinely strong though I think we need a crisis and then an EIB bond financed belt and road plan to invest what you could call the Rhine valley goods surplus. Italy can engineer the show down on that.


No comments:

Post a Comment